Hubbert curve
The Hubbert curve is a simple way to picture how the production rate of a resource changes over time. It uses a logistic, S‑shaped curve to show a period of growing production, a peak, and then a decline. The classic curve is symmetric and looks a lot like a bell, but it is not the same as a normal distribution. It was introduced by geologist M. King Hubbert in 1956 in a talk about oil, and it has since been used to discuss when resources might run out.
In theory, the curve’s shape comes from how discoveries and production grow and then slow down as the easy finds are exhausted. But real-world curves aren’t perfectly symmetric. They can be stretched or bent by factors like new extraction tech, the availability of substitutes, prices, and government rules.
Hubbert used the model to describe oil in the United States and predicted a peak around 1970 for the contiguous U.S. production. After that peak, output declined for several decades, though new methods and resources later helped push production back up. In November 2017, U.S. crude oil production reached a record high of about 10 million barrels per day.
The idea has been applied to other resources as well—natural gas, coal, helium, various metals, and even water. Each resource and region can have its own Hubbert curve because exploration and technology start at different times and progress differently. For oil, the curve is usually calculated separately for different regions or provinces, especially to account for conventional versus unconventional (like shale) oil. Hubbert curves are useful for discussing depletion, but they are not exact forecasts.
This page was last edited on 3 February 2026, at 07:16 (CET).