Horizon scanning

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Horizon scanning is a way for governments and organizations to spot early signs of new technologies, threats, or opportunities so they can plan for the future. It is often used in areas like health, environment, agriculture, and food safety.

How it differs from environmental scanning: Environmental scanning tends to provide information for short-term, industry-specific decisions. Horizon scanning looks farther ahead and focuses on new or unexpected developments that might change policy or practice.

Origins and purpose: The term started appearing in the mid-1990s in studies of technology trends and forecasting. In Europe, horizon scanning was later used to detect and evaluate new health care technologies. The main goal is to systematically explore potential future developments that are at the edge of current thinking and planning.

What horizon scanning involves: It is the systematic examination of potential threats and opportunities—especially new technologies—and their possible effects. It aims to identify early signs of important changes, including unusual or persistent trends.

A typical process (shared by many programs):
- Define the scope and questions
- Scan a wide range of sources to gather signals
- Filter and assess the relevance and impact of signals
- Prioritize which signals to monitor
- Report findings and set up ongoing monitoring

Methods and tools: Horizon scanning uses several techniques and sources, including news media, scientific publications, patent data, and funding information. Text mining and data analysis help turn large amounts of information into actionable insights.

Examples from around the world:
- Europe: A system using news, papers, patents, and funding data to support transport policy and innovation planning.
- Joint Research Centre: Adds text mining to support innovation monitoring.
- Sweden: Software tools that categorize scientific literature and analyze citations to identify trends.
- United Kingdom: An established Horizon Scanning Centre to centralize efforts and coordinate scanning activities.
- United States: The Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality started a healthcare horizon scanning program, later complemented by the Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Institute’s health care horizon scanning system.