Soft landing (economics)
A soft landing in economics means the economy slows from growth to a gentle pace or levels off, without entering a recession. It usually happens when policymakers try to cool inflation.
Hard vs soft landings are hard to pin down and are often judged differently.
The term comes from flight, where a gradual landing is achieved by reducing buoyancy. It was later used for planes, gliders, and spacecraft.
In the United States, soft landings are tied to Federal Reserve tightening—raising interest rates over several steps to fight inflation.
The most cited recent soft landing was in 1994, when Fed Chair Alan Greenspan carefully adjusted interest rates and the money supply.
A soft landing means monetary policy tightens to curb inflation but avoids a recession. If tightening causes a recession, it’s a hard landing.
A soft landing can also describe a market or industry that slows down without crashing, even if the wider economy stays stronger. For example, headlines might talk about a “soft landing” for house prices as rate hikes slow growth.
Politically, some administrations aim for a soft landing to avoid recession; for instance, discussions around policy goals have touched on this idea.
In 2024, many economists thought the U.S. was achieving a soft landing, with inflation easing and the economy avoiding severe hardship. The New York Times noted U.S. strength and inflation moving toward the 2% target without a recession.
By March 2025, however, some warned that a soft landing could be at risk due to extreme economic policies.
This page was last edited on 2 February 2026, at 14:14 (CET).