Post-election pendulum for the 2016 Australian federal election

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Summary: In 2016, the Coalition won the federal election with a one-seat majority, holding 76 of 150 lower-house seats. Labor had 69 seats and crossbenchers held the remaining five. The Australian Electoral Commission classifies seats as marginal (<56%), fairly safe (56–60%), or safe (>60%) based on the winning party’s share of the vote.

The Mackerras pendulum, created by psephologist Malcolm Mackerras, is a simple tool for predicting outcomes in Australia’s Westminster-style House of Representatives. It orders all seats by their two-party-preferred margin and shows the swing needed for each seat to change hands. If there is a uniform swing toward either side, the pendulum can estimate how many seats will change hands.